Cream of Conciousness
Minimal butterfat content
Sunday, March 09, 2025
Appalachian triumph of Apocalyptic highs and lows
Wednesday, February 05, 2025
Warren Buffet's Full Course Meal Treat: A sumptuous 'Buffett' for all seasons
Pic Courtesy: The Investor's Podcast Network
The Warren Buffett 'University' has gifted the world invaluable life and work lessons for investors, entrepreneurs, business leaders, and just about anyone willing to suspend judgment and relish the timeless sermons only Buffett and his partner Charlie Munger can. If you feel that the best home for a grand congregation of humor, pathos, passion, romance, suspense, intrigue, irony and inspiration is a classic film script or a best seller novel, think again! Buffett can dish out a better and more enduring fare through his earthy wit and wisdom.
Any Warren Buffett communiqué gives you all of it along with a generous sprinkling of 24-carat life lessons but his Golden anniversary letter to Berkshire shareholders was even more special. It gave the hint of an imminent good bye, but trust Buffett and his confidant, consultant and comrade Charlie Munger to rejoice the future possibilities devoid of any narcissist sermons and egoistic riders that often unknowingly creep into a communication of this genre.
Under the head ‘The Next 50 Years at Berkshire’, Buffett strongly recommends a fresh Berkshire stock purchase only if the investor is willing to hold it for at last five years. And he’s not in favor of using borrowed money for the purchase to safeguard against any steep fall that may not justify the leverage option. He advises all companies of ensuring - at all times - substantial and reliable earning streams, huge liquid assets and no significant immediate cash needs.
He foresees limited scope in percentage terms for long-term Berkshire gains from here on especially when compared to the progress report of the preceding 50 years. He estimates a time frame of a decade or two when the Berkshire directors would face a reinvestment dead-end of sorts and would have to choose between or both of the two routes of distributing excess earnings: dividend payouts and share repurchase.
In the conclusive paragraphs, Buffett clearly spells out the defining characteristics of the future Berkshire CEO. The CEO would:
- Be relatively young to enable a long run at office
- Be Rational, calm and decisive
- Possess character, a broader understanding of business and good insights into human behavior
- Know his limits
- Prevent business decay by fighting off arrogance, bureaucracy and complacency
- Spring forth from within
Particularly noteworthy for mega corporates back home is the anti-bureaucracy people constitution at Berkshire. As a collective of large companies as opposed to a giant conglomerate, Berkshire headquarters are completely free of committees. Budgets are not an arid mandatory exercise, only a critical internal evaluation tool. And no legal office here, nor human relations, public relations, investor relations, strategy or acquisitions that are often ‘taken-for-granted’ in most companies, only a super active audit function. Wish several Berkshire-like entities evolve in India in the time to come. ‘Make in India’ will gain traction and momentum at one go.
Priceless Buffett quotes
“When we differ, Charlie usually ends the conversation by saying: “Warren, think it over and you’ll agree with me because you’re smart and I’m right.”
“Post mortems of acquisitions, in which reality is honestly compared to the original projections, are rare in American boardrooms. They should instead be standard practice.”
“If horses had controlled investment decisions, there would have been no auto industry.”
“In truth, “equity” is a dirty word for many private-equity buyers; what they love is debt. And, because debt is currently so inexpensive, these buyers can frequently pay top dollar. Later, the business will be resold, often to another leveraged buyer. In effect, the business becomes a piece of merchandise.”
“Mental “flexibility” of this sort (here, Buffet is pin pointing the brazen contrast in the typical banker’s pre and post acquisition advice) by the banking fraternity has prompted the saying that fees too often lead to transactions rather than transactions leading to fees.”
“Charlie told me long ago to never underestimate the man who overestimates himself.”
“Never forget that 2+2 will always equal 4. And when someone tells you how old-fashioned that math is --- zip up your wallet, take a vacation and come back in a few years to buy stocks at cheap prices.”
“Cash is to a business as oxygen is to an individual: never thought about when it is present, the only thing in mind when it is absent.”
“And if you can’t predict what tomorrow will bring, you must be prepared for whatever it does.”
“We will never play financial Russian roulette with the funds you’ve entrusted to us, even if the metaphorical gun has 100 chambers and only one bullet.”
“If our noneconomic values were to be lost, much of Berkshire’s economic value would collapse as well.”
Tuesday, December 31, 2024
"Nobody puts one over on Fred C Dobbs"
All the ageing Khans, Kumars and Kapoors of Bollywood can begin the new year on a fresh note of hope watching the yesteryear Hollywood superstar Humphry Bogart play Fred C Dobbs, an out and out negative character, in the John Huston masterpiece “The Treasure of the Sierra Madre.”
This acting triumph was monumental on two counts. One, Bogart was pitted against the great Walter Hutson (John Huston’s father) who played Howard, a kind-hearted miner with a weather beaten face, clearly the film’s soul, and two, he took on this film at a time when he was ageing and balding and stuck in the image of the bow-tied sleuth of pedestrian crime commotions, and tediously known for his hyponasal and lisped speech during the fag end of his career.
Thanks to Bogart’s dexterity and Huston’s filmmaking brilliance, his character arc doesn’t lose its charm in the predictable moral failings that take such characters to the usual abyss of an destruction beyond repair. Filmmaker after filmmaker has make this downfall a fortified cliché. Not Huston!
Bogart punctuates the progressive decline of his character with aplomb, how the yearning for a secure life makes way for avarice which, thanks to the growing distrust of and disdain for comrades, becomes lethal till it turns fatal. He even manages to derive some sympathy for the delusional disaster that Dobbs turns out, which is weird given the extreme wickedness of Dobbs that has disgusting layers to it. And yet you feel like feeling for him, which is thanks only to Bogart’s surreal performance. No wonder, Daniel Day Lewis found Fred C Dobbs very helpful for portraying the anti-hero Daniel Plainview of ‘There Will Be Blood’.
The base camp for the film is Tampico, Mexico where circumstances of abject poverty bring together three musketeers of different makes and takes to embark on a gold pursuit on the Sierra Madre mountain range: one, the wise one Howard is the unassuming light house of the squad, having been there done that, two, inherently toxic Dobbs that we have discussed above, and three, the congenial adventurer Bob Curtin (Tim Holt is simply superb) who is the proverbial glue of sorts, chugging along with his two mates, seeped in wishful thinking. The mission goes horribly wrong for Dobbs and the other two are the deserving beneficiaries of life’s remainder theorem. And yet the end, minus the needless frame of Howard winking at the camera, has rich nutrients best watched on any screen of the device near you.
Some Videshi film reviewer has described the tragedy of Sierra Madre as downmarket Shakespearean. Nothing can be more discourteous to the genius of original author who used the pen name B. Traven, as also to the virtuosity of Huston and team. The Yankees are known to revere the Great Bard for the wrong reasons, and without having the slightest idea of what he brings to the table and where he becomes babyishly predictable. They will do well to keep aside Spark Notes and study the wealth of Greek literature including the Iliad all over again, and maybe even attempt to grasp the essence of the Indian epic Mahabharata. They will feel the depth of this film’s tragedy and begin to appreciate why tragedy is not about markets, both up and down.
Meanwhile, our Khans, Kumars and Kapoors can surely find at least a handful of native filmmakers with untapped potential, if they flash their torchlights on the wastelands outside the cosy Bollywood confines of their pet studios and captive directors.
These lifeboats can become their Desi John Hustons to help them move up the value chain of film acting in mainstream cinema. They can venture out of the box and yet achieve box office success, and a fresh lease of life in their autumn years.
For now, they can watch (or rewatch) the film to appreciate how Huston uses the rich metaphor of Gold Digging to convey larger truths about the futility of step-up ambition (much like the fatality of step-up loans) and the frailty of the human condition.